Prediction market regulation in Asia — country by country
Not legal advice. Regulatory frameworks change and enforcement varies. Users must verify the current position with local counsel before trading. This page is educational only.
Regulatory status at a glance
| Jurisdiction | Regulator | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) | Restricted | Polymarket blocked Jan 12, 2025 |
| Japan | Financial Services Agency (FSA) | Under evaluation | Polymarket targeting 2030 approval |
| South Korea | Financial Services Commission (FSC) / FSS | Grey area | Virtual Asset User Protection Act (Jul 2024) does not name prediction markets |
| Hong Kong | Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) | Grey area | HKJC monopoly on domestic wagering |
| Taiwan | Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) | Grey area | Virtual asset service provider framework applies |
| Malaysia | Securities Commission Malaysia / Ministry of Home Affairs | Grey area | Common Gaming Houses Act 1953 applies broadly |
| Thailand | Digital Asset Business (SEC/MOF) | Grey area | Gambling Act 1935 restricts most wagering |
| Indonesia | Bappebti | Grey area | Broad anti-gambling regime; crypto derivatives regulated |
| Vietnam | State Bank of Vietnam / Ministry of Finance | Grey area | Emerging crypto framework, no prediction-market specifics |
| Philippines | Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas / SEC | Grey area | Crypto exchange oversight; sports betting under PAGCOR |
Country details
Singapore Restricted
Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) explicitly restricted Polymarket on January 12, 2025. The GRA treats offshore prediction market activity as unlicensed gambling. Domestic financial licensing exists under the Monetary Authority of Singapore for prediction-market-adjacent products via the Payment Services Act and Securities and Futures Act, but no publicly launched domestic prediction exchange operates under these frameworks as of 2026.
Japan Under evaluation
Japan's traditional public-gambling regime (JRA horse racing, keirin, boat racing, lotteries) does not include prediction markets. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) has begun engaging with international prediction market operators. Polymarket has appointed a local representative and publicly targets 2030 for FSA approval. Decentralized prediction market usage by individual Japanese residents is technically restricted but not typically enforced against retail users. Domestic licensed prediction-market activity remains an open regulatory question.
South Korea Grey area
The Virtual Asset User Protection Act (July 2024) put virtual asset service providers under Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service oversight. Prediction markets are not explicitly named. Domestic sports betting is limited to state-run Sports Toto. Foreign prediction markets are technically accessible but usage falls under general foreign-exchange and anti-gambling provisions that create compliance risk.
Hong Kong Grey area
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) licensed virtual asset trading platforms under a 2023 framework. Prediction markets are not explicitly categorized. The Hong Kong Jockey Club holds a legal monopoly on domestic wagering (horse racing, football, lotteries), so prediction market products that resemble sports betting face particular regulatory friction. Financial-derivative-structured event contracts have not been directly addressed by the SFC.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines Grey area
None of these jurisdictions have issued explicit prediction-market frameworks. Existing anti-gambling legislation (Malaysia's Common Gaming Houses Act 1953, Thailand's Gambling Act 1935, Indonesia's KUHP gambling provisions, Vietnam's decrees under the Ministry of Finance, and the Philippines' PAGCOR regime for sports betting) applies broadly. Digital-asset frameworks in each country (Bappebti in Indonesia, SEC/MOF in Thailand, SC Malaysia, State Bank/MOF in Vietnam, BSP/SEC in Philippines) cover crypto exchanges but do not directly categorize prediction markets. Users on decentralized platforms trade under general law and are individually responsible for compliance.
Taiwan Grey area
Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission regulates virtual asset service providers under a framework that requires anti-money-laundering compliance and reporting. Sports Lottery has a state monopoly on domestic sports wagering. Prediction markets are not explicitly named; users trade at their own compliance risk on foreign platforms.
What this means for a trader in Asia
The practical reality across most of Asia in 2026 is:
- Explicit licensing for prediction markets is rare (only the US CFTC framework offers this at scale; Japan's FSA is developing one).
- Explicit prohibition is also rare — Singapore's Polymarket block is the current standout enforcement action.
- Most jurisdictions treat prediction markets as an unaddressed grey area between anti-gambling legislation and digital-asset regulation.
- Enforcement against retail users is uncommon; enforcement against unlicensed operators is more common.
- Compliance responsibility falls on the user. Users should verify current status with local counsel, use platforms that respect local restrictions, and monitor for regulatory changes.
How this page is updated
This is a live document. When a jurisdiction issues new guidance, changes enforcement posture, or approves a new licensed operator, the corresponding section is updated and the "Last updated" date is bumped. Read this page with the date at the top in mind, and consult primary sources (the linked regulator names) for the current position before making trading or business decisions.
Frequently asked questions
Are prediction markets legal in Asia?
There is no single Asia-wide answer. Legality varies by jurisdiction and by contract structure. Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority explicitly restricted Polymarket in January 2025. Japan's Financial Services Agency has begun engaging prediction market operators for possible future licensing. Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have not issued explicit prediction-market frameworks, so users trade on decentralized platforms at their own compliance risk. Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan each have distinct financial-services and virtual-asset regulation that touches on prediction markets differently.
Is Polymarket available in Asia?
Polymarket was blocked in Singapore by the Gambling Regulatory Authority on January 12, 2025. In other Asian jurisdictions Polymarket is technically accessible but its Terms of Service typically require users to certify they are not in restricted jurisdictions. Users are responsible for local compliance.
Is Kalshi available in Asia?
No. Kalshi is a US-only CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. Its terms restrict access to US persons only. Asian users cannot register for Kalshi accounts.
How does Singapore regulate prediction markets?
Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) treats offshore prediction markets as unlicensed gambling operations. The GRA's January 12, 2025 action against Polymarket set the current precedent. Domestic financial licensing exists for prediction-market-adjacent products under the Monetary Authority of Singapore's Payment Services Act and Securities and Futures Act, but no domestic exchange has publicly launched under these frameworks as of 2026.
How does Japan regulate prediction markets?
Japan's traditional stance is that all non-government-approved wagering is illegal (public gambling is limited to horse racing, keirin, boat racing, and lotteries). Prediction markets fall into a grey area. The Financial Services Agency has begun engaging with international prediction market operators including Polymarket, which has appointed a local representative and is targeting 2030 for approval. Decentralized prediction market usage by individual Japanese residents is technically restricted but not typically enforced against retail users.
How does South Korea regulate prediction markets?
South Korea's Virtual Asset User Protection Act (July 2024) regulates virtual asset service providers under the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service. Prediction markets are not explicitly named in the law. Sports betting is limited to state-run Sports Toto. Foreign prediction markets are accessible but usage falls under general foreign-exchange and anti-gambling provisions that carry compliance risk.
How does Hong Kong regulate prediction markets?
Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission licenses virtual asset trading platforms under a 2023 framework. Prediction markets are not explicitly categorized. The Hong Kong Jockey Club has a legal monopoly on domestic wagering (horse racing, football, and lotteries), so prediction market products that resemble sports betting face regulatory friction. Financial-derivative-structured event contracts have not been directly addressed.
How does Malaysia regulate prediction markets?
Malaysia's Common Gaming Houses Act 1953 and Betting Act 1953 prohibit unlicensed gambling. Islamic finance principles also apply to a large segment of the population. The Securities Commission Malaysia oversees derivatives and digital assets. Prediction markets are not explicitly named in current legislation; users on decentralized platforms trade under general financial-services and anti-gambling law and are responsible for compliance.
How does Thailand regulate prediction markets?
Thailand's Digital Asset Business framework (via the SEC and Ministry of Finance) licenses digital-asset exchanges but does not directly address event contracts. The Gambling Act 1935 prohibits most forms of gambling outside the state lottery and horse racing. Prediction markets are in a grey zone; users on decentralized platforms trade at their own compliance risk.
How does Indonesia regulate prediction markets?
Indonesia's Bappebti (Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency) regulates crypto derivatives. Gambling is broadly prohibited under national and religious law. Prediction markets are not explicitly named; users on decentralized platforms trade under general anti-gambling law and are responsible for local compliance.
Where can Asian traders legally use prediction markets today?
The clearest paths are: (1) decentralized platforms that operate in jurisdictions permitting prediction-market activity and do not require KYC to jurisdictions with explicit blocks; (2) domestic exchanges licensed under local frameworks where they exist; (3) users physically in a jurisdiction that permits the specific product structure they intend to trade. In all cases users should verify local compliance and monitor for regulatory changes.